December 15, 2025
2025 finishing on a strong note with spot rate volatility expected to continue in 2026.
The spot tanker market delivered another strong performance in 2025, with rates remaining well above long-term average levels. The year began with relatively stable rates, followed by a notable uplift in the second half driven by higher global oil production, an increase in seaborne crude oil trade volumes, and greater trade inefficiencies due to a tightening of sanctions against Russia.
Looking ahead to 2026, global oil demand is expected to grow by around 1 mb/d as per the average of oil analyst forecasts. However, global oil supply is expected to increase at a faster pace than demand, leading to an oversupply of oil. This is likely to place downward pressure on oil prices and could push the oil price futures curve into contango, a structure that typically supports tanker demand as it encourages further stockpiling and, in extreme cases, leads to tankers being used for floating storage. Geopolitical events will continue to have a significant impact on the market in 2026, particularly with regards to the war in Ukraine and subsequent sanctions against Russia.
Overall, spot tanker rates are expected to remain firm during 2026 as underlying oil market fundamentals continue to provide support, particularly in the first half of the year. An increase in tanker newbuild deliveries from the second half of the year onwards could dampen the supply / demand balance, though this may be offset by the exit of older vessels from the compliant fleet given that the age of the global tanker fleet is at a 25-year high.
Watch Christian Waldegrave‘s monthly tanker market update for more.
Forward Looking Statements
This content contains forward-looking statements which reflect the Company’s current views with respect to certain future events and performance, including statements regarding: tanker market fundamentals, including the balance of supply and demand in the tanker market, and spot tanker charter rates. The following factors are among those that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements, which involve risks and uncertainties, and that should be considered in evaluating any such statement: changes in spot market tanker rates; changes in the production of or demand for oil; changes in trading patterns significantly affecting overall vessel tonnage requirements; greater or less than anticipated levels of tanker newbuilding orders or greater or less than expected level of tanker scrapping; changes in applicable industry laws and regulations and the timing of implementation of new laws and regulations; changes in the typical seasonal variations in tanker charter rates and other factors discussed in Teekay Tankers’ filings from time to time with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, including its most recent Annual Report on Form 20-F and subsequent Reports on Form 6-K for the quarterly periods ended thereafter. The Company expressly disclaims any obligation or undertaking to release publicly any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect any change in the Company’s expectations with respect thereto or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based.