July 2, 2025
Geopolitical Instability Leads to Renewed Tanker Market Volatility in June
Spot tanker rates were supported by an increase in long-haul movements from the Atlantic to Pacific during March and April before softening through May and the early part of June as ton-mile demand started to ease back. However, conflict between Israel and Iran led to renewed spot rate volatility during the middle of June, though the boost proved to be relatively short lived as no damage was done to oil production or export infrastructure while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz saw minimal disruption.
Looking ahead to the rest of the year, an accelerated unwind of OPEC+ supply cuts and new oil production coming online in Latin America should provide support for tanker ton-mile demand, particularly as we head into the seasonally stronger fourth quarter.
The medium-term outlook remains uncertain as a slowdown in the global economy due to the impact of tariffs / trade barriers could lead to lower oil demand growth during 2026, while unpredictable geopolitical events will continue to have an influence on tanker market direction. However, a slowdown in the pace of new tanker orders since mid-2024, a lack of shipyard capacity until the second half of 2028, and a rapidly aging tanker fleet should lead to very manageable levels of tanker fleet growth over the next 2-3 years.
Watch Christian Waldegrave‘s monthly tanker market update for more.
Forward Looking Statements
This content contains forward-looking statements which reflect the Company’s current views with respect to certain future events and performance, including statements regarding: tanker market fundamentals, including the balance of supply and demand in the tanker market, and spot tanker charter rates. The following factors are among those that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements, which involve risks and uncertainties, and that should be considered in evaluating any such statement: changes in spot market tanker rates; changes in the production of or demand for oil; changes in trading patterns significantly affecting overall vessel tonnage requirements; greater or less than anticipated levels of tanker newbuilding orders or greater or less than expected level of tanker scrapping; changes in applicable industry laws and regulations and the timing of implementation of new laws and regulations; changes in the typical seasonal variations in tanker charter rates and other factors discussed in Teekay Tankers’ filings from time to time with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, including its most recent Annual Report on Form 20-F and subsequent Reports on Form 6-K for the quarterly periods ended thereafter. The Company expressly disclaims any obligation or undertaking to release publicly any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect any change in the Company’s expectations with respect thereto or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based.